Hockey by the Numbers
Rivers’ statistics students got to see some real world applications of their studies on Thursday when Jeremy Rogalski, Director of Hockey Analytics at the Boston Bruins, shared not only the story behind landing his dream job but also detailed how he translates a fast-paced game of hockey onto an Excel sheet and then teases out a wealth of information for the coaches and players to utilize to perfect their game. AP Statistics teacher John Adams arranged the lunchtime talk in Hutton Hall.
An avid Bruins fan and hockey player, Rogalski played hockey at the club level at Bates College, earning a degree in Economics in 2009. His career path has not been a straight one, although he’s been fortunate to call the Bruins home throughout: first as an operations intern, then as a video analyst for five years, before moving up to Operations Assistant, and now Director of Hockey Analytics, doing what he loves best.
“Because I played the sport myself, and I’ve worked for coaches, I bring a unique perspective to the job,” said Rogalski. “I understand what they’re looking for. Before a game, I’ll analyze the other team’s play – who’s likely to get the face-off, who are the scorers. Then after the game, I’ll analyze our game – how was our passing, where were our shots from. I’ll assess individual players, both ours and possible drafts for the scouts, putting a statistical value on their game.”
Rogalski talked a bit about how Statistical analysis varies from sport to sport. Baseball is more straightforward: a pitch is made, the ball is hit or not, the results are more limited. With hockey there are many more possible outcomes, given the number of players and area of play.
He admitted that his value to the organization lies in his spreadsheets, but also his knowledge of the game itself is critical.
“Unlike scouts who are evaluating the players more instinctively, I take the tangibles I can measure and use them to get an answer to a question.”
To help students plan for their upcoming hockey analytics project, Jeremy stressed that they tell a story with their data using clear and easy to understand visualizations and writing.
Without giving away any of the Bruin’s secrets, he proceeded to share a dizzying array of colorful visualizations that each told a story that could engage the casual viewer on a superficial level—a graph of shots vs. goals or team standings—but also with many layers of information for the sophisticated statistician.
Has he ever been wrong? “All the time, but I don’t beat myself up about mistakes because there’s often a small sample size and so many variables. I may have stats on a player, but then he doesn’t get much playing time and that changes everything.”
Asked what is most interesting about his job, Rogalski replied that he liked not knowing what each day might bring. Injuries could cause a change in the lineup and require a whole new set of predictions for the coaching staff.
“I enjoy discovering what I don’t know. There are a lot of new programs out there that are being used for analytics by some of the more recent college grads. I need to take some classes myself.”
A great lesson in the value of being a life-long learner for these Rivers’ students.
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